Jerry Carl: The Final Stretch

The Final Stretch

Jerry Carl will finish out his term in the 118th Congress, after losing against Barry Moore in an incumbent vs incumbent primary. As his representation comes to an end, let's look back at Carl's service in Alabama's Congressional District 1.

In Relation to Mayhew:

David Mayhew theorizes that Congress Member's are single-minded seekers with the goal of re-election in mind (5). Mayhew explains that if his theory was correct, then Members of Congress behavior affect their motivation of re-election. Mayhew explains that activities like advertising, position-taking, and credit claiming drive Congress Members. 

Advertising:

Members of Congress advertise by creating a favorable image or brand name among their constituents (Mayhew 49). Carl's advertising includes: 

• Jerry Carl used the slogan "Just Jerry" to get his name across Alabama's District 1. The "Just Jerry" slogan creates a memorable name to build his campaign platform off of. 
• He sends out emailed newsletters to those who subscribe on his website. 
• His latest newsletters date to March 2021, where he described his first month in Congress.
• He only has two archived newsletters, and the other is a link to Wikipedia over the 117th Congress. He has not posted anything recent, but he is active on his Facebook and Twitter where he communicates many messages to his followers. 
• He hosts telephone and town halls.
• 
  His latest telephone town hall occurred on March 17th, 2022 where citizens can call in and ask him questions. 
• Campaign Ads: Carl posts Youtube videos about his re-election efforts and his stances on the economy, agriculture, and most importantly Biden. His presence on social media helps him advertise his name and views across a large platform. 
• He expresses that he has upheld Trump's agenda and will not surrender to "liberal nutjobs."
• While his video "Bad Guys" focuses on revamping the economy and ending Bidenflation.
• These videos contribute to his position-taking as well.
• Carl traveled to the Wiregrass region of Alabama in hopes to create a favorable image among his new voters. He wanted to create an impression, so they would remember his name. Carl believed his values aligned with the region (2024).

Position-Taking:

Congress Members also position-take by expressing judgmental statements rather than acting on policy (Mayhew 61). Jerry Carl's position taking includes:

• Carl took the position of pro-life on the House floor where he urged others to join in and support anti-abortion legislation. 
• Carl wrote in Yellow Hammer News that his top priority for 2024 is securing the Southern border, protecting life, and fixing "reckless government spending" (2024). These are items on his agenda he wants to address, but has yet to. Carl may not get to these items as his term comes to an end.
• Carl publishes press releases on his website to communicate his stance on national issues. He often makes comments on Facebook or Twitter describing the current government, typically in negative ways, including:
  
• 
  Carl Slams Biden's Ridiculous SPACECOM Decision: He expresses that the Biden administration cares more about progressing a "far-left agenda than security of the nation" (2023). Whenever it comes to the Biden administration, Carl continuously expresses his disgrace for him and his inability to get anything done. 

• Carl Responds to President Biden’s Primetime Address on the “Battle for the Soul of the Nation:” Carl released a statement calling for a strong, unified leadership which Joe Biden has failed at (2023).  

  
• Carl posts to Twitter about his concerns with the Biden Administration often. He claims Biden is the cause for national issues. He takes the position that Biden will always be the reason immigration and the economy are failing. 

Carl is not afraid to voice his opinions. He is quick to respond on anything that involves the immigration, pro-life, and infrastructure. He takes the position of supporting Trump and asking for cognitive tests for President Biden. As he fought to be "conservative enough" in his election, he made sure to tell his constituents exactly where he stands.

Credit Claiming:

Congress Members credit claim by generating a belief among constituents that will benefit themselves and their community(Mayhew 52-53). Carl's credit claiming includes:

• 
  Jerry Carl posted to his Facebook on March 2nd that he talked with local farmers about how he can help them with the current state of the economy. Carl is boasting about his care for locals and claiming credit for getting the economy back on track.
• Carl also uses Facebook to share his votes casted in Legislation to inform his district about what he is doing to help them.

• 

  Example of Credit Claiming
  
  

  Carl also uses letters (shown to the right) to inform his constituents that he does deliver results. He takes credit for funding and saving taxpayers to generate the belief that he is delivering for the community. He finishes off the letter with his official signature. 
• Carl has sponsored 16 pieces of legislation, yet not one has made it out of the introduction phase. 
• On Carl's Website, he offers a number of constituent services. He offers Military Academy nominations. In February, he posted to Facebook his interaction with a couple whose son is at the Air Force Academy because of his nomination. Carl posed for a picture and shared his contribution to young people. 
• Carl requested $34 million in earmarks for Fiscal Year 2024. These requests serve as credit claiming because Carl is generating money to complete projects in District 1. These projects are meant to benefit his community. Earmarks or "community funding projects" allow Representatives to put federal money towards "pet projects" (Lai 2023). It's purpose is to benefit the community as a whole.
• He requested $5 million to South Baldwin Regional Workforce Development Authority which will help businesses in their startup phase and encourage businesses to grow and improve. 
• He also requested $5 million to the Alabama State Port Authority to upgrade coal handling systems. 

While Members of Congress want to claim credit for important legislation, sponsoring bills, or simply praising their accomplishments, there needs to be collective action. NBC News writes that Republicans in Congress have hardly passed any legislation and chaos has consumed the party (2024). Chip Roy of Texas commented that "nothing's been delivered yet-- no final product" (NBC News 2024). In the Electoral Connection, delay is a reason for dissatisfaction in Congress, and many Republicans are dissatisfied with their colleagues (Mayhew 126). In Jerry Carl's case, he can claim he is delivering results, but his proposed legislation has only been introduced. Mayhew explains that floor amendments are introduced with speeches, and no progress is made because they have no chance of passing (119). 

Conclusion:

To conclude this blog, let's reflect one more time on Mayhew's theory that Congress Members are single-minded seekers of re-election. Jerry Carl is a single minded seeker because most of his appearances, policy, and positions have surrounded the election. He has not published a press release since September 2023 right before announcing his run for re-election. Considering his US Representative and Campaign Facebook pages, there was a spike in traveling to his newly redrawn district. He met with new voters within District 1 in hopes to gain their vote. He engaged in activities of advertising, position-taking, and credit claiming. While Jerry Carl used the slogan "Just Jerry" again to create his brand name, it was not enough for the incumbent to secure the primary win. Carl continues to take the same positions on border control, abortion, and the economy. Voters are constantly reminded of his same beliefs, so he has not really changed. Carl continues to credit claim as he shares his accomplishments on his Facebook or Twitter. While Jerry Carl put forth much effort into his re-election campaign, he continued representing his constituents on Twitter, Facebook, and in person at events. 

Primary Sources:

Mayhew, David. The Electoral Connection.

Kapur, Sahil. "It's Embarrassing." NBC News. 

Carl, Jerry. "Proudly Serving the 1st District of Alabama." Washington D.C. 

Congress.Gov. "Jerry Carl." Library of Congress.

Twitter. "Rep. Jerry Carl."

Facebook. "Jerry Carl for Congress."

Facebook. "U.S Representative Jerry Carl."

Lai, Stephanie. "As G.O.P. Rails Against Federal Spending." NYT

Secondary Sources:

GovTrack. "Rep. Jerry Carl." 

Carl, Jerry. "Rep. Jerry Carl: 2024 Priorities." YellowHammerNews.

Cox, Bradley. "Carl Releases Fifth Ad." 1819 News.

Lambert, Jacklynn. "Jerry Carl Visits the Wiregrass." News4

Battle Between Incumbents: A Showdown

 

A Showdown: 

The First to Cross the Finish Line

By: Madison Johnson

Jerry Carl will go head to head with current incumbent Barry Moore for the battle of Alabama's 1st Congressional District. Moore currently represents District 2, but the state redistricting opened a new door for him. They are revving their engines, and only one will cross the finish line. First, let's look at some circumstances affecting Carl's reelection efforts:

Last Election:

2022 General Election: 

• Carl defeated Libertarian candidate Alexander Remrey
• Carl had a total of 83.6% of the votes (140, 592).
• Remrey only had 15.7% of the total votes (26,369)
• The 2022 Primary Election was canceled for Carl, being uncontested, and he advanced as the Republican nominee
• Marginal Victory: R+68
• Carl raised $1.26 million in campaign funds

2020 General Election:

• Carl ran his first campaign for House Representative of Alabama's District 1
• He defeated Democrat James Averhart
• Carl received 64.4% of the total vote (211,825)
• Averhart received 35.5% of the total vote (116,949)
• Carl ran for an open seat, and he raised $1.93 million in campaign funds.
• Averhart only raised $79K in funds, which relates back to our lecture about how those who raise more money are more successful in their election efforts.

Compared with the 2020 and 2022 General Election, voter turnout was lower for the midterm election. In 2022, there was half the percentage of votes compared to 2020. 

• 2020 Total Votes: 329,075
• 2022 Total Votes: 168,150

Carl's 2024 Campaign Finance:💸

• Total Receipts: $1,993,725
• Total receipts are anything of value, whether that is money, goods, or services received by a political party (FEC)
• Total Contributions: $1,461,550
• These are contributions made by the public, committees, or PAC.
• Total Dismemberments: $1,852,359
• These are purchases, payments, distributions, loans, and gifts of money that can influence a federal election.
• Cash on H
  and: $595,264
• Carl currently has more cash on hand than Moore who has only $214,055 left on hand.
• Raised Campaign Funds: $1,808,273
• Carl raised more money from small donors, while Moore raised more from PACS.
• Carl raised $16,000 from small donors and $23,000 from PACs
• Moore raised $4,300 from small donors and $39,000 from PACs
• 
  Spent Campaign Funds: $1,666,906

2020 Presidential Election:

• In the 2020 Presidential Election, Carl gave his vote to Trump.
• Overall for the state of Alabama, 62% voted for Trump, and 36.6% voted for Biden.  Trump received Alabama's nine electoral votes.
• According to a survey conducted by CNN Politics, more urban cities voted for Biden, while suburban and rural cities voted for Trump. This relates to how Democrats typically appeal to large cities while Republicans appeal to small towns.
• Trump also held an R+25 marginal victory advantage in Alabama.
• Carl endorsed Trump for the upcoming 2024 Presidential Election.

Major Campaign Issues:

• Carl has actively supported Military families and institutions throughout his campaign. He is committed to his state's national defense sector and its infrastructure. He visited Fort Novosel in an effort to understand the impact the National Defense Authorization Act has had on the facility.

• 
  Carl advocates for border security. He is very concerned about the border crisis in which many illegal immigrants are crossing and bringing drugs into the country. He refers to Biden as "who doesn't get it." 

• Carl has voted in favor of Ukraine Funding, while some (Moore) believe it should go towards infrastructure projects.

Impact of Redistricting:

• Recently, they redistricted Alabama Districts because the Supreme Court ruled that the African-American population was under-represented. In 2021, the Alabama population comprised 27% of African Americans, so the Court ordered them to redraw. It was too close to the 2022 Election, so voters were forced to vote under illegal maps that were racially discriminatory. In 2023, the Alabama Legislature drew another map, yet again, they did not follow the Supreme Court, and the map was discriminatory. The Supreme Court said they cannot ignore their rulings or draw unconstitutional maps. As a result, the Supreme Court hired a master to draw up three maps, and they were proposed to a three-judge panel. The three proposed maps include:
• Remedial Map 1: contains two majority-Black districts (CD 2 & 7)
• 
  Remedial Map 2: Only one majority-Black district (CD 7)
• CD 2 is considered a Black-opportunity district, but they calculated the Black voters' choice would have a lower chance of winning
• Remedial Map 3: Only one majority-Black district (CD 7)
• CD 2 is considered a Black-opportunity district
• Preserved all 18 core counties in the Black Belt without splitting them up 

• They chose Remedial Map 3 because it would distribute black voter power equally. 
• According to Mayhew, state legislatures often redraw district maps to gain an incumbency advantage (306). Redrawn districts can boost one candidate's potential for reelection and diminish another's. They drew a map that would help them solidify a Republican seat, but now, Alabama has the potential to gain 2 democratic districts out of the 7 they have.
• The redistricting caused a major impact on Carl's Re-election campaign as he will now run against incumbent Moore. The primary will be held on March 5th, in which one lawmaker's career will end. 

Current Prediction:

• If Carl ran against someone a brand new candidate rather than an incumbent, I believe he would be safe and move on to the general election.
• However, this is not the case, and I believe there will be a toss-up between Moore and Carl. They have both received financial and voter support. Since Moore and Carl's hometown is located in Mobile, it could go either way for how people vote. 
• If Carl advances from the primary to the general election, I believe he will win the general election.
• The member vs member primary has shown another side of both incumbents, and the true rivalry is finally showing. They both represent the slogan "Make America Great Again" originally said by Donald Trump. Thomas Shaw says in The Daily Item that Carl has attacked this idea in his campaign while Moore's reputation is holding up better with the public currently. 
• The showdown is growing between the two incumbents as it becomes a "he said, she said" contest. Moore attacked Carl on Ukraine funds while Carl attacked Moore as a "tax cheat" because he wants to replace income tax with consumption tax.
• At the end of the day, Moore gave Carl a run for his money as this election has most likely become more expensive and strenuous than he originally expected. They are both on the hunt for re-election, and only one will capture its prey.

Primary Sources:

• Mayhew, David. Congressional Elections: The Case of Vanishing Marginals. 
• The New York Times. "Alabama Election Results."
• FEC. Carl, Jerry.
• FEC. Contribution Limits.
• CNN. "2020 Election Results."
• CNN. "2020 Exit Polls."
• The New York Times. "2020 Presidential Election Results: Biden Wins."

Secondary Sources:

• Ballot Pedia
• Open Secrets. "Alabama District 01 2024 Race."
• Jackson, Herb. "FEC Reports Shine Light on Super Tuesday Primaries." Roll Call.
• League of Women Voters. "What's Happening with Alabama's Redistricting post-Milligan?"
• McIntire, Mary. "Alabama Showdown looms between Carl and Moore." The Daily Item.
• Alabama Political Reporter. "Rep. Jerry Carl focuses on Fort Novosel's future, backs NDAA benefits."
• 1819 News. "Jerry Carl's 3rd Media Buy in District 1 Race to Focus on Border Security.
• Open Secrets. Jerry Carl: Congressional Elections.

Alabama's 1st Congressional District

Alabama Congressional District 1:

Alabama's New District Map

Alabama Congressional District 1 is located in the Southernmost part of Alabama. The district has a total population of 730,935 (2022). 3% of the population is foreign-born (22,522 people). The district has 98.6% of U.S. citizens compared to the national average of 93.4% (2021). They have a population containing white, non-hispanic (64.9%), African American (27%), Multiracial (2.18%), Asian (1.48%), and Hispanic white (1.43%). 82% of Alabamians believe in God, and 86% of the population is a Christian. 

Major Cities/Counties:

• The largest city in District 1 is Mobile with a population of 179,833 (2024). They recently redistricted Mobile, so the current voting age population is 120,794 people. Mobile is home to Jerry Carl, Representative of District 1. Mobile is known as The Port City or Azalea City. Mobile is an urban city.
• After the redistricting of Congressional Districts 1 and 2, the largest county in District 1 is Baldwin County. They have a total population 231,767 people, and a voting age population of 182,471 people. The county is now in the same district as the Wiregrass region in Southeast Alabama.

Demographics:

• 2022 Median Age: 40.9
• 2022 Median Household Income: $58,781.
• 2021 Poverty Rate: 15.4%, which is a 1.86% decrease from the previous year. Poverty is a social issue that impacts everyday lives. Poverty can affect the outcome of an election, as those who are below the poverty line often do not vote in national elections. When certain groups of people feel like they are not being represented, then they do not show up at a polling office. The representatives need to start advocating the economic conditions some people live in, so they feel represented like any other American.
• 2022 Educational Attainment: 90.2% graduated high school with a diploma and 27% of graduates attained a bachelor's degree or higher. 
• 2022 Veteran Status: 47,118 civilians
• 2022 Total Civilians with a disability: 111,712 people
• This is 15.2% of the population.

Economy:

• Alabama's 1st District employed 318,419 (16 years and older) people in 2022. 
• The unemployment rate is 5.1% (17,147 people).
• Major Industries include:
• Educational Services, Health Care & Social Assistance (70,525 people)
• Retail Trade (40,277)

• 

  Median Earnings by Gender

  Manufacturing (38,959)
• Highest Paying Industries include:
• Management of Companies & Enterprises
• Mining, Quarrying, Oil & Gas Extraction
• Utilities
• Median Earnings by Industry:
• Men: $45,706
• Women: $29,548
• The median earnings by industry is a concern because it shows that women still make a lot less than their male colleagues. It portrays the problem that wage based on gender still occurs. This may relate back to the stereotype that men are employed at more hands-on and harder jobs, while women do the easy work.

Party Affiliation:

Alabama 2020 Presidential Election Vote

• They are a heavily right-leaning district represented by Jerry Carl
• During the 2020 Presidential Election, the popular vote in Alabama went to Donald Trump with 62% of the vote.
• Biden received 36.6% of the popular vote in the State of Alabama. The majority of Biden's vote came from the Congressional District 7, where many African-American voters live.
• Based on the chart to the right, District 1 voted favorably for Trump with a majority of its districts the color red. District 1 is located at the southernmost part of Alabama.
• For the past 20 years, the Congressional District has been a solid red district. They are the second most republican district in Alabama and recently had a rightward shift of +28 advantage for Republicans, a large shift from 2017 when it was +15 advantage.
• Recently, they redistricted Alabama Districts because they found that the African-American population was not well-represented. It violated the Voting Rights Act of 1965. They redistricted near Congressional District 1 and 2. This is an issue because it challenges whether there is fair representation for people of color. ACLU explains that when they "pack" people of color into a singular district, they limit their voting power.

I believe that after the redistricting of Alabama's Congressional Districts, that the once homogenous constituency of District 1 will become a heterogenous constituency. According to Fenno's Exploration of Constituencies, he describes both a homogenous and heterogenous constituency. He explains that a constituency has homogeneity if it is a preexisting community and the Congress member sees less potential conflict. While a heterogenous constituency does not pay attention to pre-existing communities of interests and they have more variety in interests. Since District 1 gained some of District 2's territory, the people's interests may shift. They may have different views on what policy to implement and where their focus lies. 

Rep. Jerry Carl (AL-1) and Rep. Barry Moore (AL-2) will fight for the District 1 Representative spot in the 2024 Election. 

Primary Source:

• Richard Fenno. "U.S. House Members in their Constituencies: An Exploration." Chapter 7. 
• https://www.census.gov/mycd/?st=01&cd=01
• https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/alabama/president
• https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/11/us/politics/poorer-americans-have-much-lower-voting-rates-in-national-elections-than-the-nonpoor-a-study-finds.html

Secondary Source: 

• https://datausa.io/profile/geo/congressional-district-1-al#:~:text=Population%20%26%20Diversity&text=As%20of%202021%2C%203%25%20of,any%20other%20race%20or%20ethnicity
• https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/state/alabama/
• https://www.al.com/news/2023/10/after-redistricting-baldwin-county-emerges-as-the-epicenter-of-a-new-congressional-district.html
• https://altoday.com/archives/27365-a-look-at-the-voting-history-of-alabamas-1st-congressional-district

Author Background:

Madison Johnson

Born and Raised in Chancellor, SD. 

She currently attends Augustana University 

as a double major in Government and Spanish.

Blog #1: Just Jerry

Jerry Carl is a native from Mobile, Alabama. He was born on June 17th, 1958, and he is 65 years old. Carl graduated from Sylacauga High School in 1977. He went on to study at Lake City Community College in Florida. He soon learned that he wanted to be a business man, so today he would be known as a college dropout. He worked for Alabama Power after returning to his hometown. He has worked for various companies as a salesman. He eventually founded his own businesses at the age of 25. He grew many small businesses including; home health, speciality pharmacies, timber, and real estate. Carl married Tina in 1981, and they have two kids. He is apart of the Baptist Church (Baptist Background) . Jerry L Carl Biographical Directory

    In 2012, he ran for Mobile County Commission and won. The people re-elected him in 2016. In 2019, the commission selected him to serve as Commission President. Soon after, Carl decided to run for the United States House of Representatives in the 2020 election. Carl is a self-described conservative. He ran under Alabama's district 1 and won in a runoff election. He became the 7th person to hold a seat since 1919 in the 1st district. He was re-elected in 2022 for the same position. He serves in the 118th Congress. Carl is currently up for the 2024 election (Ballot Pedia).

Committee Involvement:

• Committee on Appropriations
• Subcommittee on Agriculture, Rural Development, Food and Drug Administration
• Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government
• Subcommittee on State Department and Foreign Operations
• Committee on Natural Resources
• Subcommittee on Indian and Insular Affairs
• Subcommittee on Water, Wildlife, and Oceans
• Committee Involvement

Carl sponsors bills in areas of Government Operations and Politics, Energy, and Environmental Protection (GovTrack). According to a report in FiveThirtyEight, Carl has voted in favor of Biden's political position 9.7% of the time. The key votes include:

• Requiring the Bureau of Prisons to provide incarcerated women with certain pregnancy-related care and limiting the use of solitary confinement for pregnant women
• Authorizing Department of Defense appropriations for fiscal year 2023 
• The 2022 fiscal year appropriations bill
• Expanding GI Bill eligibility for National Guard and Reserve members
• FiveThirtyEight

Political Beliefs:

• Anti-Abortion: He voted to overturn Roe vs Wade (YellowHammerNews).
• Economy: He voted for the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 during the debt ceiling crisis (Economy).

  

  Carl's Immigration Views⤴

• Immigration: He is supportive of building a wall (Twitter Tweet).
  
• Israel: He stands with Israel and voted to provide support and aid (YellowHammerNews).
• Gun Control: He believes the 2nd Amendment is a Constitutional Right, and he is against Anti-2nd Amendment Legislation (2nd Amendment).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5OjzrVugC8&t=30s 

Fun Facts:

• Carl voted to overturn the 2020 Election amid rumors that there was a rigged election. 
• Carl also did not vote in support of the Bipartisan Proposal to investigate the January 6 Capital Riot
• Jerry Carl Fun Facts

In a report by Progressive Punch, they calculated each Congress members ADA and Tilt Rating. These ratings are based on how progressive a member is. If the member has made more reformed votes, they will have a higher score. While those with a lower score, have not made as many progressive votes according to the website's application. Carl's Current ADA and Interest Group Scores Include:

• Lifetime Percent Score: 2.67% 
• 2023-2024 Score: 2.7
• District Tilt Rating: F (-69.77)
• Progressive Punch

Primary Source: Biographical Directory

Secondary Source: Jerry L Carl

Author Background:

Madison Johnson

Born and Raised in Chancellor, SD. She currently attends Augustana University as a double major in Government and Spanish.