A Showdown:

The First to Cross the Finish Line

By: Madison Johnson

Jerry Carl will go head to head with current incumbent Barry Moore for the battle of Alabama's 1st Congressional District. Moore currently represents District 2, but the state redistricting opened a new door for him. They are revving their engines, and only one will cross the finish line. First, let's look at some circumstances affecting Carl's reelection efforts:

Last Election:

2022 General Election:

Carl defeated Libertarian candidate Alexander Remrey
Carl had a total of 83.6% of the votes (140, 592).
Remrey only had 15.7% of the total votes (26,369)
The 2022 Primary Election was canceled for Carl, being uncontested, and he advanced as the Republican nominee
Marginal Victory: R+68
Carl raised $1.26 million in campaign funds

2020 General Election:

Carl ran his first campaign for House Representative of Alabama's District 1
He defeated Democrat James Averhart
Carl received 64.4% of the total vote (211,825)
Averhart received 35.5% of the total vote (116,949)
Carl ran for an open seat, and he raised $1.93 million in campaign funds.
Averhart only raised $79K in funds, which relates back to our lecture about how those who raise more money are more successful in their election efforts.

Compared with the 2020 and 2022 General Election, voter turnout was lower for the midterm election. In 2022, there was half the percentage of votes compared to 2020.

2020 Total Votes: 329,075
2022 Total Votes: 168,150

Carl's 2024 Campaign Finance:💸

Total Receipts: $1,993,725

Total receipts are anything of value, whether that is money, goods, or services received by a political party (FEC)

Total Contributions: $1,461,550

These are contributions made by the public, committees, or PAC.

Total Dismemberments: $1,852,359
These are purchases, payments, distributions, loans, and gifts of money that can influence a federal election.
Cash on H
and: $595,264

Carl currently has more cash on hand than Moore who has only $214,055 left on hand.

Raised Campaign Funds: $1,808,273

Carl raised more money from small donors, while Moore raised more from PACS.
Carl raised $16,000 from small donors and $23,000 from PACs
Moore raised $4,300 from small donors and $39,000 from PACs

Spent Campaign Funds: $1,666,906

2020 Presidential Election:

In the 2020 Presidential Election, Carl gave his vote to Trump.
Overall for the state of Alabama, 62% voted for Trump, and 36.6% voted for Biden. Trump received Alabama's nine electoral votes.
According to a survey conducted by CNN Politics, more urban cities voted for Biden, while suburban and rural cities voted for Trump. This relates to how Democrats typically appeal to large cities while Republicans appeal to small towns.
Trump also held an R+25 marginal victory advantage in Alabama.
Carl endorsed Trump for the upcoming 2024 Presidential Election.

Major Campaign Issues:

Carl has actively supported Military families and institutions throughout his campaign. He is committed to his state's national defense sector and its infrastructure. He visited Fort Novosel in an effort to understand the impact the National Defense Authorization Act has had on the facility.

Carl advocates for border security. He is very concerned about the border crisis in which many illegal immigrants are crossing and bringing drugs into the country. He refers to Biden as "who doesn't get it."

Carl has voted in favor of Ukraine Funding, while some (Moore) believe it should go towards infrastructure projects.

Impact of Redistricting:

Recently, they redistricted Alabama Districts because the Supreme Court ruled that the African-American population was under-represented. In 2021, the Alabama population comprised 27% of African Americans, so the Court ordered them to redraw. It was too close to the 2022 Election, so voters were forced to vote under illegal maps that were racially discriminatory. In 2023, the Alabama Legislature drew another map, yet again, they did not follow the Supreme Court, and the map was discriminatory. The Supreme Court said they cannot ignore their rulings or draw unconstitutional maps. As a result, the Supreme Court hired a master to draw up three maps, and they were proposed to a three-judge panel. The three proposed maps include:

Remedial Map 1: contains two majority-Black districts (CD 2 & 7)
Remedial Map 2: Only one majority-Black district (CD 7)

CD 2 is considered a Black-opportunity district, but they calculated the Black voters' choice would have a lower chance of winning

Remedial Map 3: Only one majority-Black district (CD 7)

CD 2 is considered a Black-opportunity district
Preserved all 18 core counties in the Black Belt without splitting them up

They chose Remedial Map 3 because it would distribute black voter power equally.
According to Mayhew, state legislatures often redraw district maps to gain an incumbency advantage (306). Redrawn districts can boost one candidate's potential for reelection and diminish another's. They drew a map that would help them solidify a Republican seat, but now, Alabama has the potential to gain 2 democratic districts out of the 7 they have.
The redistricting caused a major impact on Carl's Re-election campaign as he will now run against incumbent Moore. The primary will be held on March 5th, in which one lawmaker's career will end.

Current Prediction:

If Carl ran against someone a brand new candidate rather than an incumbent, I believe he would be safe and move on to the general election.
However, this is not the case, and I believe there will be a toss-up between Moore and Carl. They have both received financial and voter support. Since Moore and Carl's hometown is located in Mobile, it could go either way for how people vote.
If Carl advances from the primary to the general election, I believe he will win the general election.
The member vs member primary has shown another side of both incumbents, and the true rivalry is finally showing. They both represent the slogan "Make America Great Again" originally said by Donald Trump. Thomas Shaw says in The Daily Item that Carl has attacked this idea in his campaign while Moore's reputation is holding up better with the public currently.
The showdown is growing between the two incumbents as it becomes a "he said, she said" contest. Moore attacked Carl on Ukraine funds while Carl attacked Moore as a "tax cheat" because he wants to replace income tax with consumption tax.
At the end of the day, Moore gave Carl a run for his money as this election has most likely become more expensive and strenuous than he originally expected. They are both on the hunt for re-election, and only one will capture its prey.

Primary Sources:

Secondary Sources:

Congressman Jerry Carl

Sunday, March 3, 2024

Battle Between Incumbents: A Showdown